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<The Wall Street Journal> Global Financial Crisis & The Danger Zone

<The Wall Street Journal> The Danger Zone



Date: 2011年 11月 22日 16:01



Europe's debt crisis appeared to take an ominous turn last week as investors dumped the bonds of even the euro zone's healthier economies, raising fears that the growing troubles could rock the global financial system and damage world-wide economic growth.

Against that backdrop, World Bank President Robert Zoellick sat down with The Wall Street Journal's Francesco Guerrera to discuss the global financial crisis, the outlook for resolving it and the implications for the future. Here are edited excerpts of their conversation:

Power Shift

FRANCESCO GUERRERA: A while back you said, 'The world is in a danger zone.' We meet on a day when the situation in Europe seems to have worsened. How are you feeling?

ROBERT ZOELLICK: We're still in a danger zone. There are three issues that Europe is trying to struggle with at once: competitiveness, the banking system and sovereign debt.

The three are obviously interrelated. But as they try to deal with one problem─for example, debt reduction for Greece─it creates the risk of uncertainty for sovereign debt for Italy and Spain. And the device they put together [European Financial Stability Facility, or EFSF], so as to try give a firewall for Italy and Spain, was clearly the weak link. And so what you're seeing right now is a lack of certainty about Italy's and Spain's ability to roll over the debt. It also reflects something quite interesting, which is that since August you're starting to see markets make judgments about governance.

Three quick implications of this are worth paying attention to. One is emerging markets. The thing to watch is whether this would start to affect consumer and business confidence in those markets, in which case, since emerging markets have been key to global growth, you're in a very different situation.

Second, what the Europeans are still doing is providing liquidity to buy time. I'm not against buying time, but it depends on how you use the time. And underneath this has to be a growth strategy, which Europeans haven't begun to address.

But the third one is that there's some bigger power shifts going on here. I couldn't help but be struck, when I was in that [G-20 meeting in Cannes], seeing the emerging markets around the room watching the Europeans basically be unable to get their act together and thinking, 'Well, these are the countries that lectured us. These are the countries that told us what to do.' Maybe we'd be willing to try to help, but they've got to figure out how they're going to help themselves first.

If there was one feeling I left with, it's that I never want to see the U.S. in the position that Europe was in at that meeting.

MR. GUERRERA: And if the Europeans can't get their act together, should someone else do it for them? Is there any other solution other than the European Central Bank becoming the lender of last resort?

MR. ZOELLICK: Germany is going to be the key to this. But Germany will not be able to do it by itself. It's going to require some careful diplomacy with France, the European Commission and other players.

Germany has a series of positions that individually seem reasonable─they don't want the [European Central Bank] bailing out countries that don't make reforms, they don't want to pour money down a hole with EFSF, etc. The problem is, what the German position comes down to is that others in Europe need to be more like Germany. And while that would be good as an economic matter, it does raise the question of whether it's going to happen and what it means for the euro zone.

MR. GUERRERA: What does the future look like for the European Union and the euro zone?

MR. ZOELLICK: On the one hand, there's a feeling among the German public that they don't want to be taken as saps and other people are going to have to strengthen the reform process. But one should not underestimate the German commitment to Europe and the European Union.

I think what Chancellor Angela Merkel is trying to do is to say, 'Where is this going? What sort of system are you going to try to create?' There are different ways you can have fiscal union. You could assume the debts for the past, but then allow markets to determine for the future. You can create various types of European structures. I think this is the debate the Germans are now pressing.

And frankly, I think you're now at a point where Europe is going to have to decide.

MR. GUERRERA: There was some hope, even among Europeans, that the Chinese might contribute some money to the rescue package. Do you think they will, and if so, why?

MR. ZOELLICK: To me, it is somewhere between an embarrassment and foolhardy that Europe, where the average per-capita income is about $40,000 a year, should be going to China, where the average per-capita income is about $4,000 a year, with a begging bowl. In a world where I'm trying to connect the economic and power and political relations, that's not a good thing.

Second, it wasn't going to happen. One Chinese official at Cannes said to me, 'Well, if Germany isn't so concerned about this, why should I be so worried about bailing it out?' And that's the message you're going to get coming out of East Asia.

Having said that, there will be investments. If people are going to privatize, if there are opportunities, that will come. What I'm talking about is big bailouts.

MR. GUERRERA: How concerned are you about the Chinese economy?

MR ZOELLICK: Inflation has been a risk. I think they by and large have it under control, but I don't think it's totally addressed yet.

I believe you'll see some slowdown in the Chinese economy. The best thing, by the way, for China to do for the U.S. and Europe is to keep growing.

But there's something bigger going on. The Chinese are recognizing that they can't depend on export and investment-led growth in the future as they have for the past 30 years.

I am impressed that a country that's grown at 10% a year for 30 years has the presence to say, 'Look, we're going to have to change the structure.' Because maybe some people in the U.S. and Europe ought to think about changing the structure of their economies, too.

MR. GUERRERA: Where do you stand on the renminbi situation, and how does that fit into the plans by the Chinese leadership to change the mix of their economy?

MR. ZOELLICK: It should appreciate, but I'm a practical person who tries to deal with the world as it is. If you bash them head on, I don't think you're necessarily going to get progress.

Many in the U.S. would see currencies as a price signal that would change structural behavior. In China, the view is, 'If we have price signals change and the structure hasn't changed, we could have a lot of unemployed people and social unrest.'

So that's where trying to work on the structural side, while working on the price side is the most effective means.

MR. GUERRERA:


The U.S.─especially Congress─has been doing a lot of bashing, which hasn't helped at all. Is there a more diplomatic way to work on this?


MR. ZOELLICK:

In diplomacy in general, if you can find points of mutual interest, you're likely to get further than if you just try to overwhelm somebody. And I'm not sure in this case we'll overwhelm them.

So the points of mutual interest are the types of things that we'll be unveiling with the Chinese early next year that focus on some of the sectors that need to be changed, opportunities for service-sector development, opportunities for value-added production development.

And there will be other opportunities. We're starting to work with the Chinese now on the possibility of some of the low-value-added manufacturing moving to third countries, including in sub-Saharan Africa.

That's probably going to be more fruitful, even though it may not be as satisfying for somebody as clubbing people.

But do you want to know the real thing a country has to do? Quit blaming others; clean up your own act. The U.S. needs to fix some things at home. And that will be the most important thing it can do.


Author: FRANCESCO GUERRERA


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