China economy: Ten for 2010

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China economy: Ten for 2010


By THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
Published:The Economist December 24, 2009

China will enter 2010 having weathered the global financial and economic crisis far better than most countries. But challenges and concerns remain, both in the economic and political spheres. To ring in the New Year, the Economist Intelligence Unit's China team has compiled a "Ten for 2010" list of the key themes to watch for in China over the coming year:

(1). Continued rapid GDP growth.

It seems likely that GDP growth in 2010 will comfortably exceed this year's performance. Private consumption growth will be mildly slower than in 2009, as the impact of tax incentives for things like car sales eases. But this will be more than offset by the improvement on the external side. Our forecast for real GDP growth of 9.3% is slightly below market consensus. If growth surprises, it is likely to be stronger than forecast as the government appears set to adopt a cautious approach to tightening policy—perhaps too cautious. Nevertheless, inflation will be modest unless there is an agricultural crisis (we forecast that consumer prices will rise by an average of 2.6%).

(2). Rising strains between the centre and the provinces.

As the central government becomes more concerned about reining in credit growth and putting fiscal policy on a more sustainable track, the traditional tensions between the central government and local authorities will re-emerge. This will be particularly sensitive as senior leaders attempt to line up their chosen successors for the 2012-13 handover period.

(3). Deep concerns about the property market.

There is much debate and little agreement over whether China's property market is fundamentally flawed, but it does seem likely that a substantial and dangerous price bubble will emerge next year unless current policies are tightened more dramatically. Efforts to deflate a bubble will aggravate tensions with local governments, which will be depending on strong revenues from land sales to prop up finances strained by the borrowing spree to finance infrastructure spending in 2009-10.

(4). Growing disquiet over the dominance of large state enterprises.

One of the key phrases of 2009 was "guojin mintui" (the advance of the state and the retreat of the private sector). The trend has caused much disquiet among economic liberals, and with the resurgence of private firms in 2010 there may be a renewed push for economic liberalisation, especially in state-monopolised service sectors. It is doubtful that the backing for such a move exists at top levels among the current leadership, but efforts in 2010 may drive future reforms.

(5). Negative trends in media liberalisation.

The resignation of Hu Shuli as editor of Caijing, a leading business magazine, in 2009 was widely interpreted as a reflection of tensions with censors. Recent years have seen a trend towards tighter restrictions on the press. We see no chance of this trend being reversed, and every sign that another crackdown on the Internet is beginning. Such moves will have clear negative effects in the longer term—as well as undermining the business environment.

(6). No significant political reform.

The central leadership will remain primarily concerned with economic issues. Political reforms will be unimpressive, and pilot projects for experimental reforms will be few and far between. The most interesting area to watch may prove to be campaigns against urban development schemes, especially in richer areas that have already seen a previous wave of development.

(7). Ethnic tensions.

The crackdowns in Tibet and Xinjiang have clearly not ended the latent ethnic unrest in regions inhabited by Uighur and Tibetan minorities. The authorities' heavy-handed approach has arguably fuelled resentment among a large section of the minority population that was previously ambivalent. Any spark could reignite rioting in these areas. If the Dalai Lama's health fails, the violence in Tibetan communities is likely to be more widespread and destructive than in 2008.

(8). Shanghai Expo.

The expo, scheduled to run from May to October, will be successful and colourful. It will be well attended—albeit with fewer foreign visitors than many other past expos owing to the impact of the global economic downturn on travel and Chinese officials' concerns about potentially disruptive foreign visitors. The luxury hotel sector will continue to experience problems before, during and after the expo, as excess capacity drags on prices.

(9). International frictions.

China's increasingly assertive stance on the global stage will cause frictions. There is likely to be a growing chorus of nations demanding that the renminbi be allowed to appreciate against the US dollar again. The government will hold off from doing so until around the middle of 2010, and the renminbi will average around Rmb6.76:US$1 over the year as a whole. China's efforts to present itself as a major world power, coupled with its refusal to budge on the exchange rate for much of the year, will play into the hands of protectionists in other countries, increasing the likelihood of new tariffs and trade barriers on Chinese exports.

(10). Surging Chinese outbound investment.

With the China Investment Corporation, the country's sovereign wealth fund, having received a new flush of funds at the end of 2009, expect Chinese investors to maintain their high profile internationally. While strategic natural resources will still be the favoured buys, observers will be watching for big investments in industries (like car manufacturing) where a Chinese player's arrival on the international market could mark a game-changing moment. China's willingness to lend to fund infrastructure in the emerging world in exchange for access to commodities and a high degree of involvement by Chinese firms (and workers) will continue to win it friends, but there is a chance that 2010 could see the first strains in this model emerge as one or two foreign governments in regions like Africa seek to assert their independence in the relationship with China.




2010投資中國，十大必知預測


作者：經濟學人 　
出處：Web Only 2009/12

中國將風光跨入2010年，但挑戰和憂慮仍然存在。
經濟學人列出了「2010年十大預測」，作為明年觀察中國的關鍵：

1、GDP持續快速成長

2010年的GDP成長應能輕鬆超過2009年，私人消費成長些微下滑，但外部環境改善的影響會更大。經濟學人預估實質GDP成長為9.3%，通膨則為緩和的2.6%，除非出現農業危機。

2、中央與地方的關係更加緊繃

中央政府開始擔心信貸成長過高，並有意將財政政策轉向更合理的路線，中央與地方的緊繃將再度出現。

3、不動產市場問題

中國不動產市場是否有瑕疵，各界仍然爭執不休，明年確實可能出現嚴重的價格泡沫，除非加速緊縮目前的政策。

4、大型國營企業的主導性讓人憂心

「國進民退」是2009的重要趨勢，影響經濟自由，2010年私人企業復甦也許可以促進經濟自由化。

5、媒體自由倒車

最近幾年媒體限制趨於嚴格，經濟學人認為此趨勢無法逆轉。打擊網路的行動似乎又要開始，將在長期造成負面效應，並破壞企業環境。

6、沒有重大政治改革

中央將繼續以經濟問題為主，政治不會出現耀眼的改革。

7、種族緊張

西藏與新疆問題尚未結束，官方的強力手段也使不滿更高漲，任何火星都可能引燃暴動。

8、上海世博會

世博會將會十分成功，但外國參與者的人數會不如過往。高級旅館業將繼續面臨供給過度壓抑價格的問題。

9、國際爭執

各國可能會更大力要求人民幣升值，中國政府在明年中期以前都不會升值，此舉可能會引燃其他國家的保護主義。

10、中國對外投資大增

策略性天然資源仍是中國的首要目標，工業大型投資也是觀察重點，中國加入國際市場可能會改變整個局勢。

參考網址：

http://www.cw.com.tw/article/index.jsp?id=39841


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