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National Income and Product Accounts:Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2010

National Income and Product Accounts

Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2010 (advance estimate) <USA>

  • Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and propertylocated in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2010,(that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released bythe Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.7 percent.      The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on sourcedata that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3).The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 23,2010.      



  • The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions frompersonal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, nonresidential fixedinvestment, federal government spending, and exports that were partly offset by a negative contributionfrom residential fixed investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.      



  • The small acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a sharp deceleration inimports and accelerations in private inventory investment and in PCE that were partly offset by adownturn in residential fixed investment and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and inexports.





  • FOOTNOTE. -- Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwisespecified.  Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates.  Percentchanges are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized.  “Real” estimates are in chained (2005)dollars.  Price indexes are chain-type measures.      This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlightsrelated to this release._________________________      Motor vehicle output added 0.42 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP aftersubtracting 0.06 percentage point from the second-quarter change.  Final sales of computers added 0.25percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.03 percentage point to thesecond-quarter change.      The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,increased 0.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in the second.Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.6 percent inthe third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the second.      Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.6 percent in the third quarter, comparedwith an increase of 2.2 percent in the second.  Durable goods increased 6.1 percent, compared with anincrease of 6.8 percent.  Nondurable goods increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9percent.  Services increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent.      Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 9.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with anincrease of 17.2 percent in the second.  Nonresidential structures increased 3.9 percent, in contrast to adecrease of 0.5 percent.  Equipment and software increased 12.0 percent, compared with an increase of24.8 percent.  Real residential fixed investment decreased 29.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 25.7percent.      Real exports of goods and services increased 5.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with anincrease of 9.1 percent in the second.  Real imports of goods and services increased 17.4 percent,compared with an increase of 33.5 percent.      Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 8.8 percentin the third quarter, compared with an increase of 9.1 percent in the second.  National defense increased8.5 percent, compared with an increase of 7.4 percent.  Nondefense increased 9.6 percent, comparedwith an increase of 12.8 percent.  Real state and local government consumption expenditures and grossinvestment decreased 0.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent.      The change in real private inventories added 1.44 percentage points to the third-quarter change inreal GDP after adding 0.82 percentage point to the second-quarter change.  Private businesses increasedinventories $115.5 billion in the third quarter, following increases of $68.8 billion in the second quarterand $44.1 billion in the first.      Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 0.6percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in the second.Gross domestic purchases      Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services whereverproduced -- increased 3.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 5.1 percent in thesecond.Disposition of personal income      Current-dollar personal income increased $65.7 billion (2.1 percent) in the third quarter,compared with an increase of $123.5 billion (4.1 percent) in the second.      Personal current taxes increased $22.3 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of$2.6 billion in the second.      Disposable personal income increased $43.4 billion (1.5 percent) in the third quarter, comparedwith an increase of $120.9 billion (4.4 percent) in the second.  Real disposable personal incomeincreased 0.5 percent, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent.      Personal outlays increased $85.2 billion (3.2 percent) in the third quarter, compared with anincrease of $59.8 billion (2.3 percent) in the second.  Personal saving -- disposable personal income lesspersonal outlays -- was $631.0 billion in the third quarter, compared with $672.8 billion in the second.The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.5 percent inthe third quarter, compared with 5.9 percent in the second.  For a comparison of personal saving inBEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s flowof funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.Current-dollar GDP      Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased4.2 percent, or $151.5 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $14,730.2 billion.  In the second quarter,current-dollar GDP increased 3.7 percent, or $132.3 billion.

  • BOX. -- Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technicalnote that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site.  Within a few days after the release,a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site.  In the middle of eachmonth, an analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made availableon the Web site; click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy."________________________      BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting thesite, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.                                      *          *          *                      Next release -- November 23, 2010, at 8:30 A.M. EST

  • for:                   Gross Domestic Product:  Third Quarter 2010 (Second Estimate)                      Corporate Profits:  Third Quarter (Preliminary Estimate)                                      *          *          *                                   Comparisons of Revisions to GDP     Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule:  the “advance” estimate, based onsource data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, is released near the end of thefirst month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,the “second” and “third” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively.  The“latest” estimate reflects the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.     Annual revisions, which cover the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, are usually carried outeach summer and incorporate newly available major annual source data.  Comprehensive (or benchmark)revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well asimprovements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S.economy.The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of current-dollarand of real GDP for the different vintages of the estimates.  From the advance estimate to the second estimate (onemonth later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from theadvance estimate to the third estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point.  From the advance estimate tothe latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.2 percentage points.  The average revision(with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.3 percentage point, which is larger thanthe average revisions from the advance estimate to the second or to the third estimates.  

  • The larger averagerevisions to the latest estimate reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements, such asthe incorporation of BEA’s latest benchmark input-output accounts.  The quarterly estimates correctly indicate thedirection of change of real GDP 98 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating ordecelerating 74 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trendgrowth more than three/fifths of the time .                                                                                                              

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  • Contacts:

    GDP:
    Lisa Mataloni
    (202) 606-5304
    gdpniwd@bea.gov
    Recorded Message:
    (202) 606-5306
    News Media:
    Ralph Stewart, BEA
    (202) 606-2649
    Thomas Dail, BEA
    (202) 606-2649


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Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis is an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

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